TAB Betting Blog, Stick with Resin at Warwick Farm

Horse Racing


Wednesday’s best racing comes from Warwick Farm and Sandown, tab.com.au form analyst Mitchell Lamb identifying some quality early on in at the Sydney circuit.

WEDNESDAY’S BEST

Warwick Farm Race 1 No.3 Lean Mean Machine (Blake Shinn) – $2.70

Always some risk throwing up an unraced two-year-old as your best of the day, but I suspect Lean Mean Machine is well above average. He may just have too much class for this field, which is made up of five other first starters and two with experience you wouldn’t refer to as special.

This son of hot first season sire Zoustar, out of a very fast and early running juvenile in She’s Meaner, has gone to the trials twice in the last month, comfortably winning his first one at Rosehill. He sat wide on the speed on that occasion and was given a little rev up late, before being placed under little to no pressure at Warwick Farm, as he held off his main rival here in Hiemal late, who was certainly being stoked up more.

He looks the type that’s quite professional and appears to have the pace to be able to go forward; those two traits will give him a great advantage as time goes on.

Small field should help him here and I wouldn’t be surprised if Chris Waller is thinking this guy is pretty smart and could potentially be aimed at a Brisbane campaign, pending all things going well here.

AROUND THE GROUNDS

Warwick Farm Race 2 No.4 Resin (Glyn Schofield) – $3.50

Bred to be good, being by Exceed And Excel out of Godolphin’s wonderful Doomben 10,000 winning mare Beaded, Resin has obviously had some issues. We didn’t see her publicly between her debut when an unplaced favourite in the Maribyrnong Plate in November 2016, through to a Randwick trial at the end of last year.

Even after that trial, she wasn’t seen again until another Randwick trial some 6 weeks later. They finally got her to raceday again at Gosford some three weeks ago when was odds on there, and after showing fantastic early speed to kick up and lead in what was a fast-run race, she kicked clear on the turn before falling in a hole late as Crimson Ticket, who’d enjoyed a beautiful trail in behind her, pounced on her in the last 100 metres. Clearly that run will have done Resin the world of good; I was quite impressed in what she did there, despite being beaten when expected to win.

She has to go to the six furlongs now second up, but from what I witnessed at Wyong she has the pace to get across the odds on favourite here in Dinnigan and control this race. That will be key to how this unfolds, if for some reason Resin wasn’t able to get to the front and dictate to the Tulloch Lodge filly, then she may be in strife. But they look the clear two chances, and at the odds on offer I’m certainly willing to risk that Resin can do exactly that and win.

Sandown (Hillside) Race 5 No.5 Hulme (Luke Nolen) – $13

He’s got a bit to learn from a race smarts perspective, but Hulme has a bit of untapped ability and I’m a bit surprised we’re getting double figure odds in this.

The Mick Price-trained gelding is bred to get over a bit of ground on his female side, his grand-dam being Australasian Oaks winner Grand Echezeaux and his mother being by Montjeu, but he is by a speed sire in Power, the National and Coventry Stakes winning son of Oasis Dream. From what I’ve seen so far, he’s going to be at least a mile to mile-and-a-quarter type.

He won well on debut in June of last year, before a short two-start spring prep where he was very good behind the talented Royal Symphony first up in a listed race at Flemington. The race run didn’t suit over the same track and trip behind Snitzpeg, although he stuck on stoutly coming from last on the turn.

We then saw him come back this campaign against older horses at Benalla where a tearaway leader took him out of his comfort zone and made him chase. Hulme had to circle the field and simply couldn’t make up the ground when finishing third; it wasn’t a bad effort despite the fact he was favourite.

He wow gets to a mile, on a big circuit, back against his own age and Mick Price has put the blinkers on him to sharpen him up a touch. There looks to be some semblance of speed here, so hopefully Luke Nolen can slot him into a position a little worse than midfield without having to go all the way back. He’ll be strong late…hopefully not too late.

OVER THE ODDS

Sandown (Hillside) Race 7 No.7 Sneakers (Beau Mertens) – $14

This is about the right grade for Sneakers; she’s no star and they’ll do well to ever get black type out of her. But she’s a good little mare who tries hard and she’s a big hope here first up.

That might be the key with her. She seems to race very well fresh and although 1000 metres might be short of her very best, there’ll be a heap of speed on here and she might be able to possie up somewhere midfield and then rip down the centre of the long Hillside straight.

The form around the likes of Invictum Domina, Pedrena, and Sword Of Justice reads very well for this; Sneakers will need every bit of that five furlongs but she’s more than capable of beating this lot at a very appealing quote.

QUADDIE SELECTIONS

Warwick Farm

Leg 1 – 2,3,4

Leg 2 – 2,5,8,9

Leg 3 – 2,4,10

Leg 4 – 3,6,11,12,13

($100 = 55.55%)

Sandown (Hillside)

Leg 1 – 1,5,7,12

Leg 2 – 2,3,5,9,10

Leg 3 – 4,5,7,13

Leg 4 – 2,3,8,10

($100 = 31.25%)



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